BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Parula Population Trend in Ohio

All statesForest birds

Northern Parula in Ohio has surged: up 24× on the route-weighted index since 1976.

24×Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Parula Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has surged in Ohio: up 24× on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Northern Parula Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Ohio is projected to fall about 33% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.83 (95% range 0.48–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-33%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.83Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.48–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Ohio is projected to fall about 33% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.83 (95% range 0.48–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.750.401.1
20260.770.421.1
20270.790.441.1
20280.810.461.2
20290.830.481.2

Northern Parula Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Northern Parula in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rome1220241977
Bolins Mills720241990
Wayne N.F.620241996
Mohican S.F.620241994
Zaleski S.F.520241995
New Marshfld420242011
Smithfield320232022
Tar Hollow220241994
Tick Ridge220192003
West Elkton220121994
Harveysburg219691969
Omega220242008
Ash Ridge220211995
Scioto Furn220222003
Bloomville120152015
Shawnee S.F.119961992
Scioto Trail120131994
Pittsfield120212008
Ashley120161992
Pike S.F.120131992
Strongsville119761974
W Carrollton120151992
Harveysburg 2120231997
Enon120241996
Dresden120222018

Northern Parula Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaoklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.