BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Parula Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

Northern Parula in Kentucky has surged: up 24× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

24×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Parula Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has surged in Kentucky: up 24× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Parula Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.4 (95% range 3.3–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.3–5.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.4 (95% range 3.3–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.13.05.2
20264.23.15.3
20274.33.15.4
20284.43.25.5
20294.43.35.6

Northern Parula Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Northern Parula in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Joy1320231981
Canton1220241970
Hegira1220241988
Lebanon Junction1120242000
East Union1020221982
Bays Fork1020191999
Riverqueen920242009
Apex920242005
Merrimac920241990
Beattyville 2920242006
Hodgenville 2920232008
Brownsville820242022
Cumberlnd Gp820181966
Hustonville820242001
Mammoth Cave North720132009
Porter620241992
Mammoth Cave620141995
Phelps619971979
Johnsonville520211980
Drakesboro520031979
Kehoe519821982
Lovelacevile420241970
Carter420241976
Gatewood420191981
Paintsville419951979

Northern Parula Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.