BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Parula Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

Northern Parula in Kentucky has surged: up 23× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

23×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Parula Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has surged in Kentucky: up 23× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Parula Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Kentucky is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 3.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 3.4–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.4–5.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Kentucky is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 3.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 3.4–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.23.05.3
20274.23.15.4
20284.33.25.4
20294.43.35.5
20304.53.45.6

Northern Parula Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Northern Parula in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Joy1320231981
Hegira1220241988
Shiloh1020251981
Bays Fork1020191999
Riverqueen920252009
Merrimac920241990
Beattyville 2920242006
Hodgenville 2920232008
Brownsville820242022
Cumberlnd Gp820181966
East Union820251982
Canton720251970
Apex720252005
Mammoth Cave North720132009
Hustonville620252001
Mammoth Cave620141995
Phelps619971979
Johnsonville520211980
Eastview520251986
Drakesboro520031979
Porter520251992
Kehoe519821982
Lebanon Junction520252000
Lovelacevile420251970
Carter420251976

Northern Parula Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.