Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Northern Parula Population Trend in Kentucky
Northern Parula in Kentucky has surged: up 24× on the route-weighted index since 1968.
24×Since 1968
59Routes In State
57Years
Notable Northern Parula Trends in Kentucky
long arc increasecomputed index
Northern Parula has surged in Kentucky: up 24× on the route-weighted index since 1968.
Northern Parula Population Forecast in Kentucky
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.4 (95% range 3.3–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-4%Change by 2029
4.4Projected 2029 index
3.3–5.695% range
±21.6%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 5.2 |
| 2026 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 5.3 |
| 2027 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 5.4 |
| 2028 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 5.5 |
| 2029 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 5.6 |
Northern Parula Survey Routes in Kentucky
| Joy | 13 | 2023 | 1981 |
| Canton | 12 | 2024 | 1970 |
| Hegira | 12 | 2024 | 1988 |
| Lebanon Junction | 11 | 2024 | 2000 |
| East Union | 10 | 2022 | 1982 |
| Bays Fork | 10 | 2019 | 1999 |
| Riverqueen | 9 | 2024 | 2009 |
| Apex | 9 | 2024 | 2005 |
| Merrimac | 9 | 2024 | 1990 |
| Beattyville 2 | 9 | 2024 | 2006 |
| Hodgenville 2 | 9 | 2023 | 2008 |
| Brownsville | 8 | 2024 | 2022 |
| Cumberlnd Gp | 8 | 2018 | 1966 |
| Hustonville | 8 | 2024 | 2001 |
| Mammoth Cave North | 7 | 2013 | 2009 |
| Porter | 6 | 2024 | 1992 |
| Mammoth Cave | 6 | 2014 | 1995 |
| Phelps | 6 | 1997 | 1979 |
| Johnsonville | 5 | 2021 | 1980 |
| Drakesboro | 5 | 2003 | 1979 |
| Kehoe | 5 | 1982 | 1982 |
| Lovelacevile | 4 | 2024 | 1970 |
| Carter | 4 | 2024 | 1976 |
| Gatewood | 4 | 2019 | 1981 |
| Paintsville | 4 | 1995 | 1979 |
Northern Parula Population Trend in Other States
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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.