BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Parula Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Northern Parula in North Carolina has risen sharply: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+63%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
106Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Parula Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has risen sharply in North Carolina: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Parula Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in North Carolina is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 4.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 2.5–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–5.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in North Carolina is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 4.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 2.5–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.72.45.1
20273.82.45.1
20283.82.45.1
20293.82.55.1
20303.82.55.1

Northern Parula Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Northern Parula in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fontana2620251968
Cullowhee2020251974
French Broad River1820252001
Kyle1620241994
Bullock1520251997
Brevard1420251968
Linville1420251976
Youngsville1320251966
Murphy1320241996
Gupton1220252001
Highlands1120251994
Osmond1020252001
Ernul1020092001
Sheep Ridge1020251994
Cherokee1020252011
Shallotte819911966
Waterville820251994
Andrews819981994
Supply720251992
Spring Hope720252002
Eden620252015
Montague620251990
Wilgrove620251995
Uwharrie Nf620011993
Marshall520251990

Northern Parula Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorkohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.