BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Parula Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Northern Parula in North Carolina has increased: up 46% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+46%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
106Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Parula Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Parula in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Northern Parula Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in North Carolina is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 4.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.4–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–5.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in North Carolina is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 4.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.4–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.62.35.0
20263.72.45.0
20273.72.45.0
20283.72.45.0
20293.72.45.0

Northern Parula Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Northern Parula in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brevard3120241968
Cherokee3120242011
Fontana2420241968
Cullowhee1820241974
Kyle1620241994
French Broad River1520242001
Murphy1320241996
Highlands1320241994
Gupton1220242001
Bullock1020241997
Osmond1020242001
Ernul1020092001
Sheep Ridge1020241994
Shallotte819911966
Linville820241976
Waterville820231994
Andrews819981994
Supply720241992
Eden620242015
Marshall620241990
Uwharrie Nf620011993
Youngsville520241966
Durham520241992
Mashoes419751971
Arapahoe419951966

Northern Parula Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorkohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.