BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Parula Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Northern Parula in North Carolina has increased: up 46% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+46%Since 1968
106Routes In State
58Years

Notable Northern Parula Trends in North Carolina

No notable trend signals for Northern Parula in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Northern Parula Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in North Carolina is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 4.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.4–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029
3.7Projected 2029 index
2.4–5.095% range
±18.2%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20253.62.35.0
20263.72.45.0
20273.72.45.0
20283.72.45.0
20293.72.45.0

Northern Parula Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Northern Parula in North Carolina.
Brevard3120241968
Cherokee3120242011
Fontana2420241968
Cullowhee1820241974
Kyle1620241994
French Broad River1520242001
Murphy1320241996
Highlands1320241994
Gupton1220242001
Bullock1020241997
Osmond1020242001
Ernul1020092001
Sheep Ridge1020241994
Shallotte819911966
Linville820241976
Waterville820231994
Andrews819981994
Supply720241992
Eden620242015
Marshall620241990
Uwharrie Nf620011993
Youngsville520241966
Durham520241992
Mashoes419751971
Arapahoe419951966

Northern Parula Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorkohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.