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Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Parula Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Northern Parula in Tennessee has surged: up 25× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

25×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Parula Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has surged in Tennessee: up 25× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Parula Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Tennessee is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 5.0–9.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.0–9.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Tennessee is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 5.0–9.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.64.48.7
20266.74.68.9
20276.84.79.0
20287.04.89.1
20297.15.09.3

Northern Parula Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Northern Parula in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mansfield4620241973
Big Sandy3720241976
Silerton2320241968
Collinwood2020241967
Sweetlips1920231988
Humboldt1720241981
Silver Pt1420241980
Mecca1420231994
Trace Lewis1320172013
Lewis Forest1220241971
Willis Sprng1220231994
Elk Valley920221971
Oliver Spgs920221973
Harbuck920231994
Trace Collinwood920182015
Moscow820241987
Trenton820231984
Cades Cove820241989
Tibbs720241966
Union Hill720241974
Tellico720241995
Indian Mound 2720232004
Pond Creek620241967
Smokey Jct620221966
Tiptonville520231973

Northern Parula Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.