BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Parula Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Northern Parula in Tennessee has surged: up 24× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

24×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Parula Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has surged in Tennessee: up 24× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Parula Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 7.3 (95% range 5.2–9.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.2–9.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 7.3 (95% range 5.2–9.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.84.78.9
20276.94.89.0
20287.15.09.2
20297.25.19.3
20307.35.29.5

Northern Parula Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Northern Parula in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big Sandy4720251976
Mansfield3320251973
Silerton2320241968
Sweetlips1920231988
Silver Pt1420241980
Mecca1420231994
Pond Creek1320251967
Trace Lewis1320172013
Willis Sprng1220231994
Collinwood1120251967
Oliver Spgs920221973
Harbuck920231994
Trace Collinwood920182015
Trenton820231984
Tellico820251995
Union Hill720241974
Newfound Gap720251990
Indian Mound 2720232004
Tiptonville620251973
Moscow620251987
Humboldt620251981
Smokey Jct620221966
Cades Cove620251989
Wrigley520221966
Campbellsville520171970

Northern Parula Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.