BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Parula Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesForest birds

Northern Parula in Oklahoma has surged: up 319% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+319%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Parula Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has surged in Oklahoma: up 319% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Parula Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 42% by 2029 — from 0.97 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.85–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+42%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.85–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 42% by 2029 — from 0.97 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.85–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.781.8
20261.30.801.8
20271.30.811.9
20281.40.831.9
20291.40.851.9

Northern Parula Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Northern Parula in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Colcord920221992
Hee Mountain720241999
Heyburn720241992
Baron420231967
Noble420241977
Big Cedar320241968
Indianola320242003
Holdenville320231971
Peoria320231967
Bethel320241999
Pocola320161993
Mcalester219901969
Mill Creek220172004
Mt. Herman220221998
Matoy220002000
Blanco120161967
Phillips120061992
Ouachita Nf120141996
Ardmore119871987
Canadian120171967
Beggs120231996
Welch120232002
Collinsville120191969
Bartlesville120191970
Goodwater120161996

Northern Parula Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.