BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Parula Population Trend in Alabama

All statesForest birds

Northern Parula in Alabama has surged: up 599% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+599%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
97Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Parula Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has surged in Alabama: up 599% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Parula Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Alabama is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.8 (95% range 3.9–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.9–5.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Alabama is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.8 (95% range 3.9–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.53.75.3
20264.63.75.4
20274.63.85.5
20284.73.95.5
20294.83.95.6

Northern Parula Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Northern Parula in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gainestown Ferry8520151999
Cottonton2620241970
Sprott-Cahaba Riv2420141999
Epes2320241984
Chacaloochee Bay2320192009
Sprague1920241966
Whitehall1820241983
Liberty City 21520242017
Wedowee1320232000
Borden Springs 21220242001
Vina1220231996
Greensboro1120241966
Riverside1120132001
Millerville1020241977
Borden Sprng1019981993
Howard920241981
Calebee920241993
Nixburg 2920242000
Maytown820232004
Warrior Std820241968
Blocton820241971
Liberty City820111984
Holt820241998
Latham720001970
Wallsboro620211966

Northern Parula Population Trend in Other States

arkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.