BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Parula Population Trend in Alabama

All statesForest birds

Northern Parula in Alabama has surged: up 691% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+691%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
97Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Parula Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has surged in Alabama: up 691% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Parula Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Alabama is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 6.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 4.0–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.0–6.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Alabama is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 6.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 4.0–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.73.75.7
20274.83.85.8
20284.93.95.8
20294.94.05.9
20305.04.06.0

Northern Parula Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Northern Parula in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gainestown Ferry8520151999
Autaugaville2720251996
Sprott-Cahaba Riv2420141999
Epes2320241984
Chacaloochee Bay2320192009
Whitehall2120251983
Sprague2020251966
Greensboro1920251966
Calebee1620251993
Carrollton1420251995
Harrell1320251968
Warrior Std1320251968
Cottonton1320251970
Holt1320251998
Wedowee1320232000
Borden Springs 21220242001
Vina1220231996
Riverside1120132001
Millerville1020251977
Blocton1020251971
Borden Sprng1019981993
Helicon1020251996
Maytown920252004
Kymulga920252010
Nixburg 2920252000

Northern Parula Population Trend in Other States

arkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.