BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Parula Population Trend in Kansas

All statesForest birds

Northern Parula in Kansas has surged: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1972.

14×Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Parula Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has surged in Kansas: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Northern Parula Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Kansas is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 0.61 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.30–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.52Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.30–0.7395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Kansas is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 0.61 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.30–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.480.260.69
20260.490.270.70
20270.500.280.71
20280.510.290.72
20290.520.300.73

Northern Parula Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Northern Parula in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Olsburg420242000
Le Loup320212000
Olathe220211972
Wreford220241993
Grantville220222002
Rock Creek220211968
Bucyrus220242022
Reece220242001
Lincolnville220242006
Severance220232000
Rock Creek 2220242022
Melrose120231967
Galesburg120231998
Humboldt120221977
Lapland120211997
Wellington120062006
Dalton120242010
Dover120181992
Barclay120151996
Buckeye120122011
Pittsburg120182004
Morehead120242004
Trading Post120232000
Longton120061991

Northern Parula Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.