BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Parula Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesForest birds

Northern Parula in West Virginia has risen sharply: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+52%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Parula Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has risen sharply in West Virginia: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Parula Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in West Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.9 (95% range 2.0–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in West Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.9 (95% range 2.0–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.92.03.8
20262.92.03.8
20272.92.03.8
20282.92.03.8
20292.92.03.9

Northern Parula Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Northern Parula in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Smithfield1620241993
Stollings1220211986
Fayetteville1219961980
Breeden1120241986
Strange Crk1020241982
Denmar920241980
Sugar Grove720161966
Yawkey620241966
Sutton620241976
Ghent520241978
Hanover520241980
Welch520231980
Nicut520241989
Olcott420241969
Ruthbelle420241975
Greer320231966
Albright319741966
Mt Storm319751968
Glade Run320021988
Bowden320241993
Hix220241970
Pedro220231979
Bramwell220221978
Hubbardstown220231982
Meadland220241997

Northern Parula Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.