BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Parula Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesForest birds

Northern Parula in West Virginia has increased: up 47% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+47%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Parula Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Parula in West Virginia. See the full index history below.

Northern Parula Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in West Virginia is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 2.0–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–3.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in West Virginia is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 2.0–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.81.93.8
20272.92.03.8
20282.92.03.8
20292.92.03.8
20302.92.03.8

Northern Parula Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Northern Parula in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Denmar1320251980
Stollings1220211986
Fayetteville1219961980
Breeden1120241986
Three Forks1020251971
Valley Head720251970
Strange Crk720251982
Sugar Grove720161966
Yawkey620241966
Green Bank620251980
Smithfield620251993
Smoot420251986
Hubbardstown420251982
Olcott420241969
Canaan420251974
Sutton420251976
Bismark420251976
Hanover320251980
Welch320251980
Clendenin320251979
Nicut320251989
Greer320231966
Albright319741966
Mt Storm319751968
Ruthbelle320251975

Northern Parula Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.