BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Parula Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Northern Parula in Texas has declined: down 31% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-31%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Parula Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Parula in Texas. See the full index history below.

Northern Parula Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Texas is projected to fall about 68% by 2030 — from 0.38 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-68%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±75.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Texas is projected to fall about 68% by 2030 — from 0.38 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.140.000.36
20270.130.000.35
20280.130.000.35
20290.130.000.35
20300.120.000.35

Northern Parula Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Northern Parula in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Arenosa Crk1820251993
Diboll620251968
Weches620251995
Paige420252015
Livingston420251969
Gambill Ref.420252012
Muldoon320251996
Moon Lake 2320252017
Mt. Selman320011998
Decatur320242024
Thornton 3320182018
Hinkles Fer220241984
George West220012001
Town Bluff220251967
Oak Grove219991967
Crossroads220102000
Moon Lake220091994
Yoakum220241994
Leakey220242002
Union Hill220241994
Carlos220251993
Indian Mtn220171990
Goliad Prairie120082006
Oak Grove 2120242003
Hearne120152002

Northern Parula Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.