BirdAnalyst
Species · South Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Parula Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesForest birds

Northern Parula in South Carolina has declined: down 32% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-32%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Parula Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Parula in South Carolina. See the full index history below.

Northern Parula Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in South Carolina is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 5.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 0.72–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.72–6.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in South Carolina is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 5.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 0.72–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.90.887.0
20273.90.846.9
20283.80.806.9
20293.80.766.9
20303.80.726.8

Northern Parula Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Northern Parula in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Nixville1920251998
Coward1620251966
Jamestown1520191967
Hardeeville1420251967
Greenwood1220251998
Dale1220251998
Battlecreek1020251999
Red Bluff1020251996
Kingstree920102010
Holly Hill720251972
Nixonville719951987
Green Sea720252010
Adams Run720251988
Salem Xrd620191982
Lowrys620252017
Owings 2620252008
Bennettsville520171999
Whitmire420242010
Olar420191998
Pinewood420191999
Cauthens Xrd420211983
Rome320251967
Wagener320251966
Ridgeway320252010
Mount Pisgah320251998

Northern Parula Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.