BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Parula Population Trend in Indiana

All statesForest birds

Northern Parula in Indiana has surged: up 23× on the route-weighted index since 1976.

23×Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Parula Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has surged in Indiana: up 23× on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Northern Parula Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Indiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.7 (95% range 1.2–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Indiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.7 (95% range 1.2–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.61.12.1
20261.61.12.1
20271.61.12.2
20281.71.22.2
20291.71.22.2

Northern Parula Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Northern Parula in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Georgia1720242001
Indian Spgs820241988
Celestine820241982
Corydon820241975
Pimento720222001
Hoosier620241992
Cumback520211974
Millersburg520241993
Wallace520242000
Belmont420241989
Brookville320242021
Clear Spring320241982
Witts Station320242001
Monticello220191983
Thorntown220232010
Wabash220242006
Friendswood220242011
Spencer220241985
Milroy220211999
Shelbyville220231986
New Phila220241985
Scottsburg220242000
Evansville220221993
New Castle220242017
Cyprss220241999

Northern Parula Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.