BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Parula Population Trend in Indiana

All statesForest birds

Northern Parula in Indiana has surged: up 22× on the route-weighted index since 1976.

22×Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Parula Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has surged in Indiana: up 22× on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Northern Parula Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Indiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.8 (95% range 1.3–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Indiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.8 (95% range 1.3–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.61.12.1
20271.71.12.2
20281.71.22.2
20291.71.22.2
20301.81.32.3

Northern Parula Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Northern Parula in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Georgia1020252001
Corydon920251975
Indian Spgs820251988
Pimento720222001
Brookville620252021
Celestine620251982
Cumback520211974
Millersburg520241993
Wallace520242000
Cyprss520251999
Belmont420241989
Clear Spring420251982
Witts Station420252001
Hoosier320251992
Azalia320251986
New Phila320251985
Newberry320252002
Thorntown220232010
Wabash220242006
Friendswood220242011
Jamestown220252018
Spencer220241985
Shelbyville220231986
Scottsburg220252000
Evansville220221993

Northern Parula Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.