BirdAnalyst
Species · New Hampshire · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Parula Population Trend in New Hampshire

All statesForest birds

Northern Parula in New Hampshire has surged: up 597% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+597%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Parula Trends in New HampshireNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has surged in New Hampshire: up 597% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Parula Population Forecast in New Hampshire

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in New Hampshire is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.0 (95% range 2.8–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–5.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in New Hampshire is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.0 (95% range 2.8–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.72.64.8
20273.82.64.9
20283.82.75.0
20293.92.85.0
20304.02.85.1

Northern Parula Survey Routes in New Hampshire

Routes recording Northern Parula in New Hampshire.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clarksville3820251966
Dixville Notch 22020252018
Dixvil Notch1520171966
Stratford720251966
Milan620251967
Franconia520251966
Jefferson Hl420251966
Jeffers Ntch420251993
Wilmot320251971
Mt Chocorua320251967
Lempster220251973
Crawford Not219751966
Glen220251977
Peterborough120231977
Fitzwilliam119941969
Dover120062006
Hopkinton120221976
Epsom120001973
Concord120251987
Strafford120251973
Canterbury120211976
Gilmantn I W120211993
Walpole120231977
Marlow120122012

Northern Parula Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.