BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Parula Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Northern Parula in New York has surged: up 504% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+504%Since 1968
48Routes In State
58Years

Notable Northern Parula Trends in New York

long arc increasecomputed index

Northern Parula has surged in New York: up 504% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Parula Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in New York is projected to rise about 95% by 2029 — from 0.48 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.94 (95% range 0.48–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±101.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+95%Change by 2029
0.94Projected 2029 index
0.48–1.495% range
±101.2%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.880.421.3
20260.900.441.4
20270.910.451.4
20280.930.471.4
20290.940.481.4

Northern Parula Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Northern Parula in New York.
Inlet3620171979
Newcomb1420221971
Blue Ridge S1120101969
Gabriels1120241975
Horseshoe L.1020171992
Old Forge720061971
Sabattis619831966
Old Forge 2420182007
Highmarket420231974
Speculator420241966
North River420071977
Wanakena420241991
St Regis Fls320171978
S Horicon320062005
W Shokan219681968
Swain 2220212021
Mckeever220221974
Warrensburg220191970
Degrasse220242017
Parishville220241982
Underwood219951969
Westhampton120021992
Huntington120232023
Bedford119781970
Highland119691969

Northern Parula Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.