BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Parula Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Northern Parula in New York has surged: up 629% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+629%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Parula Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has surged in New York: up 629% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Parula Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in New York is projected to rise about 35% by 2030 — from 0.70 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.94 (95% range 0.48–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+35%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.94Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.48–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±91.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in New York is projected to rise about 35% by 2030 — from 0.70 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.94 (95% range 0.48–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.880.421.3
20270.900.441.4
20280.910.451.4
20290.930.471.4
20300.940.481.4

Northern Parula Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Northern Parula in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Inlet3620171979
Gabriels1920251975
Newcomb1420221971
Blue Ridge S1120101969
Horseshoe L.1020171992
Old Forge720061971
Sabattis619831966
Old Forge 2420182007
St Regis Fls320171978
North River320251977
S Horicon320062005
Wanakena320251991
W Shokan219681968
Swain 2220212021
Mckeever220221974
Highmarket220251974
Warrensburg220191970
Underwood219951969
Westhampton120021992
Huntington120232023
Bedford119781970
Rhinebeck120252025
Highland119691969
Middletown119761972
Westbrookvle120052004

Northern Parula Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.