BirdAnalyst
Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Parula Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesForest birds

Northern Parula in Mississippi has surged: up 257% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+257%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Parula Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has surged in Mississippi: up 257% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Parula Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Mississippi is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 5.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 1.6–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–5.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Mississippi is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 5.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 1.6–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.41.45.5
20263.51.55.5
20273.51.55.5
20283.51.55.6
20293.61.65.6

Northern Parula Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Northern Parula in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trace Lorman2320192016
Trace South2320192007
Trace Choctaw2220192012
Oak Ridge Vick2220212015
Holly Springs2120242010
Trace Chickasaw1720242012
Dundee1620221970
Corinth1620241974
Warren Vick1620222018
Cockrum1520241976
Beverly1320111966
Sandy Creek1320001993
Water Valley1320182015
Trace Attala1220192016
Fayette1020081968
Duck Hill820241971
Embry820242011
Fort Adams720221975
Tupelo620221985
Poplarville519781978
Trace North520182011
Lake Mary419901974
Olive Branch420011976
Winterville420112009
Delta N.F.420182003

Northern Parula Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.