BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Parula Population Trend in Florida

All statesForest birds

Northern Parula in Florida has surged: up 293% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+293%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
102Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Parula Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has surged in Florida: up 293% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Parula Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 12 (95% range 8.9–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.9–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 12 (95% range 8.9–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026118.314
2027118.514
2028118.614
2029118.714
2030128.914

Northern Parula Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Northern Parula in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pinetta4820251987
Polk City4120251967
Ft Mccoy3620251987
St Augustine3420251967
San Antonio3020251967
Seminole Hills 22920222002
Belmore2820241966
Ft Lonesome2820251970
New Hope2820112009
Sanderson 22520242022
Belmont2420251966
Olustee2420251992
Hilliard2320251966
Island Grove2320251992
Mt. Olive2320252002
Micanopy2219911966
Citrus Park2220251993
Callahan2120241987
Steinhatchee2020251966
Hixtown Swmp1920251987
Mabel 21820252012
Goethe1720252010
Seminole Hls1520001967
Kenansville1520251967
Miller Xrds1520191987

Northern Parula Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.