BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Parula Population Trend in Florida

All statesForest birds

Northern Parula in Florida has surged: up 292% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+292%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
100Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Parula Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has surged in Florida: up 292% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Parula Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Florida is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 8.6–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.6–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Florida is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 8.6–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025118.114
2026118.214
2027118.414
2028118.514
2029118.614

Northern Parula Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Northern Parula in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pinetta7320241987
Island Grove5620241992
St Augustine3320241967
Hixtown Swmp3320241987
San Antonio3220241967
Seminole Hills 22920222002
Belmore2820241966
Polk City2820241967
New Hope2820112009
Ft Mccoy2720241987
Citrus Park2720241993
Belmont2520241966
Sanderson 22520242022
Hildreth 22420242010
Mt. Olive2420242002
Micanopy2219911966
Ft Lonesome2220241970
Callahan2120241987
Nobleton1920241987
Crewsville1920242000
Alligator Pt1720241987
Green Swamp1720241987
Blountstown1620241967
Seminole Hls1520001967
Miller Xrds1520191987

Northern Parula Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.