BirdAnalyst
Species · Maine · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Parula Population Trend in Maine

All statesForest birds

Northern Parula in Maine has surged: up 419% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+419%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Parula Trends in MaineNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has surged in Maine: up 419% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Parula Population Forecast in Maine

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Maine is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 11 (95% range 6.9–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.9–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Maine is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 11 (95% range 6.9–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026106.414
2027106.514
2028106.614
2029106.814
2030116.914

Northern Parula Survey Routes in Maine

Routes recording Northern Parula in Maine.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Northfield6219811976
Aurora3320211975
Cooper3320211975
Forest Sta2820001966
Winn2720251969
Nesowadnehun2720211990
Carrying Pl2420251979
Waite2419771977
Grnd Lk Strm2320001966
Brooks2220211977
Wytopitlock2220251976
Horse Mtn2220111983
Wilson Mills2120251983
Hudson2120161973
Weeks Brook2120161995
Eastbrook2020251971
Seboomook Lk2020141972
East Troy1920211973
Medway1920251977
Topsfield1719961978
Baker Lake1520091994
Andover1520212010
Charleston1420211975
Harmony1320251970
Carrabassett1320251983

Northern Parula Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.