BirdAnalyst
Species · Louisiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Parula Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesForest birds

Northern Parula in Louisiana has edged down: down 22% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-22%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Parula Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Parula in Louisiana. See the full index history below.

Northern Parula Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Louisiana is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.71–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.71–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Louisiana is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.71–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.40.794.0
20272.40.774.0
20282.40.754.0
20292.30.734.0
20302.30.713.9

Northern Parula Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Northern Parula in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kraemer3020251997
Lafitte2619911967
Ramah1520251988
Plettenberg1120221968
Freetown1020091968
Womack1020251999
Berwick1020181987
Atchafalaya820251989
Derry 2820251990
Morgan City619861970
Flat Creek620252024
Natchez620251992
Mer Rouge520081995
Gibson520151999
Mount Union520251998
Slidell519881984
Lacombe419831967
Cypress419871967
Lake Cove420172011
Carlisle319871968
Easton319901968
Fort Polk319721972
Tensas Nwr320251987
Keystone220131970
Shaw220241967

Northern Parula Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.