BirdAnalyst
Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Parula Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesForest birds

Northern Parula in Louisiana has edged down: down 16% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-16%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Parula Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Parula in Louisiana. See the full index history below.

Northern Parula Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Louisiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.3 (95% range 0.70–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.70–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Louisiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.3 (95% range 0.70–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.40.784.0
20262.40.764.0
20272.40.744.0
20282.30.724.0
20292.30.704.0

Northern Parula Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Northern Parula in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kraemer3020241997
Lafitte2619911967
Ramah1620241988
Plettenberg1120221968
Freetown1020091968
Berwick1020181987
Flat Creek820242024
Natchez720241992
Morgan City619861970
Pearl River620241989
Mer Rouge520081995
Gibson520151999
Enterprise520242006
Slidell519881984
Lacombe419831967
Cypress419871967
Lake Cove420172011
Mount Union420241998
Carlisle319871968
Easton319901968
Fort Polk319721972
Tensas Nwr320241987
Atchafalaya320241989
Derry 2320241990
Burr Ferry320241993

Northern Parula Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.