BirdAnalyst
Species · Georgia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Parula Population Trend in Georgia

All statesForest birds

Northern Parula in Georgia has surged: up 218% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+218%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Parula Trends in GeorgiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has surged in Georgia: up 218% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Parula Population Forecast in Georgia

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Georgia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.6 (95% range 4.2–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.2–7.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Georgia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.6 (95% range 4.2–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.33.96.7
20265.44.06.8
20275.44.06.9
20285.54.16.9
20295.64.27.0

Northern Parula Survey Routes in Georgia

Routes recording Northern Parula in Georgia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Colonels Island4720232005
Woodbine3020242011
Riceboro2420231995
Ousley2320242015
Baxley2120191966
Stockton1920241977
Tarver1520241991
Headlight1520242011
Ware Co1420241986
Shiloh1420242012
Nashville1220241978
Deepstep1220231976
Boston1220241975
Piedmont Nwr1220031991
Council1120242012
Glenmore1120242013
Union1120232011
Folkston1020221994
Barges1020242011
Mountain Cty920241975
Dover920241976
Keller919941975
Big Oak920242006
Juliette820241978
Whitesburg820241997

Northern Parula Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.