BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Parula Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Northern Parula in Minnesota has surged: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

12×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Parula Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has surged in Minnesota: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Parula Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.6 (95% range 1.0–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.6 (95% range 1.0–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.50.942.1
20271.50.972.1
20281.60.992.1
20291.61.02.1
20301.61.02.2

Northern Parula Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Northern Parula in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lockport2220251967
Crane Lake1220251969
Sawbill Camp1120251993
Glendale1020251993
Jordan820251993
Blackduck820222004
Hart Lake620251975
Hovland520251973
Bigfork520251993
Sawbill Lndg420251974
Sherry Lake320221973
Bena319771967
Nett Lake320242013
Chisholm320242019
Cass Lake220161980
Backus220222014
Cohasset220191973
Mcgregor220251998
Babbitt220182004
Red Lake220101994
Tamarac Nwr120241992
Nebish120251982
Cromwell120231968
Mille Lacs119961996
Pine River120182014

Northern Parula Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.