BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Parula Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Northern Parula in Minnesota has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

13×Since 1969
35Routes In State
56Years

Notable Northern Parula Trends in Minnesota

long arc increasecomputed index

Northern Parula has surged in Minnesota: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Parula Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.6 (95% range 1.0–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2029
1.6Projected 2029 index
1.0–2.195% range
±28.3%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.50.902.0
20261.50.932.1
20271.50.952.1
20281.50.982.1
20291.61.02.1

Northern Parula Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Northern Parula in Minnesota.
Lockport2720241967
Hovland1220241973
Crane Lake1120241969
Sawbill Camp1020241993
Hart Lake920241975
Blackduck820222004
Glendale720241993
Jordan620231993
Bigfork620241993
Sawbill Lndg320231974
Sherry Lake320221973
Bena319771967
Nett Lake320242013
Chisholm320242019
Cass Lake220161980
Nebish220231982
Backus220222014
Cohasset220191973
Debs220241973
Babbitt220182004
Red Lake220101994
Tamarac Nwr120241992
Cromwell120231968
Mille Lacs119961996
Pine River120182014

Northern Parula Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.