BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Parula In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainForest birds

Northern Parula in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 150% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+150%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
327Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 150% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.4 (95% range 5.2–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.2–7.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.4 (95% range 5.2–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.24.97.5
20266.35.07.6
20276.35.07.6
20286.45.17.7
20296.45.27.7

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Northern Parula in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gainestown FerryALABAMA852015
PinettaFLORIDA732024
Colonels IslandGEORGIA472023
MansfieldTENNESSEE462024
Big SandyTENNESSEE372024
Hixtown SwmpFLORIDA332024
WalterboroSOUTH-CAROLINA312017
WoodbineGEORGIA302024
Seminole Hills 2FLORIDA292022
New HopeFLORIDA282011
CottontonALABAMA262024
BelmontFLORIDA252024
Sanderson 2FLORIDA252024
Sprott-Cahaba RivALABAMA242014
Hildreth 2FLORIDA242024
RiceboroGEORGIA242023
EpesALABAMA232024
Chacaloochee BayALABAMA232019
OusleyGEORGIA232024
Trace SouthMISSISSIPPI232019
Trace LormanMISSISSIPPI232019
SilertonTENNESSEE232024
Trace ChoctawMISSISSIPPI222019
Oak Ridge VickMISSISSIPPI222021
CallahanFLORIDA212024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.