BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Parula In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainForest birds

Northern Parula in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 150% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+150%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
327Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 150% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Parula In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.4 (95% range 5.2–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.2–7.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.4 (95% range 5.2–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.24.97.5
20266.35.07.6
20276.35.07.6
20286.45.17.7
20296.45.27.7

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Northern Parula in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gainestown FerryALABAMA852015
PinettaFLORIDA732024
Colonels IslandGEORGIA472023
MansfieldTENNESSEE462024
Big SandyTENNESSEE372024
Hixtown SwmpFLORIDA332024
WalterboroSOUTH-CAROLINA312017
WoodbineGEORGIA302024
Seminole Hills 2FLORIDA292022
New HopeFLORIDA282011
CottontonALABAMA262024
BelmontFLORIDA252024
Sanderson 2FLORIDA252024
Sprott-Cahaba RivALABAMA242014
Hildreth 2FLORIDA242024
RiceboroGEORGIA242023
EpesALABAMA232024
Chacaloochee BayALABAMA232019
OusleyGEORGIA232024
Trace SouthMISSISSIPPI232019
Trace LormanMISSISSIPPI232019
SilertonTENNESSEE232024
Trace ChoctawMISSISSIPPI222019
Oak Ridge VickMISSISSIPPI222021
CallahanFLORIDA212024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.