BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Parula In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Northern Parula in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 199% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+199%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
93Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 198% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Parula In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.7–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.7–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.11.62.5
20272.11.62.5
20282.11.72.6
20292.21.72.6
20302.21.72.6

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Northern Parula in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PomonkeyMARYLAND272025
Island CreekMARYLAND222025
TruhartVIRGINIA212024
White StoneVIRGINIA172025
BrandonVIRGINIA142025
PomfretMARYLAND112024
Pt RepublicMARYLAND101989
JessupMARYLAND102025
Port RoyalVIRGINIA102025
Broomes IslMARYLAND81996
DavidsnvilleMARYLAND82025
NottinghamMARYLAND82025
Forest GroveMARYLAND72023
SpraguetownNEW-JERSEY71999
WalkersVIRGINIA72023
HughesvilleMARYLAND62025
Pr FrederickMARYLAND62025
La PlataMARYLAND52009
SharpsVIRGINIA52025
Tall TimbersMARYLAND42014
MansfieldMASSACHUSETTS31978
WinslowNEW-JERSEY32010
WillimanticCONNECTICUT22000
Warren 2CONNECTICUT22019
LargoMARYLAND21980

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.