BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Parula In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Northern Parula in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 184% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+184%Since 1968
93Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Northern Parula has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 184% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.2 (95% range 1.7–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+0%Change by 2029
2.2Projected 2029 index
1.7–2.695% range
±11.8%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20252.01.62.5
20262.11.62.5
20272.11.72.5
20282.11.72.6
20292.21.72.6

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Northern Parula in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
PomonkeyMARYLAND352024
TruhartVIRGINIA212024
Island CreekMARYLAND182024
BrandonVIRGINIA162024
HughesvilleMARYLAND132024
PomfretMARYLAND112024
Pt RepublicMARYLAND101989
GloucesterVIRGINIA92024
Broomes IslMARYLAND81996
Forest GroveMARYLAND72023
DavidsnvilleMARYLAND72024
NottinghamMARYLAND72024
SpraguetownNEW-JERSEY71999
Port RoyalVIRGINIA72019
WalkersVIRGINIA72023
White StoneVIRGINIA62024
La PlataMARYLAND52009
ShannockRHODE-ISLAND52024
Tall TimbersMARYLAND42014
Furnace TownMARYLAND42023
Gay HeadMASSACHUSETTS42024
MansfieldMASSACHUSETTS31978
WinslowNEW-JERSEY32010
WillimanticCONNECTICUT22000
Warren 2CONNECTICUT22019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.