BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Parula In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Northern Parula in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

13×Since 1969
148Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Northern Parula has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 0.58 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.51–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2029
0.70Projected 2029 index
0.51–0.8995% range
±22.5%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.650.460.84
20260.660.470.85
20270.670.480.86
20280.690.490.88
20290.700.510.89

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Northern Parula in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
BelleviewILLINOIS102024
FrankfordMISSOURI92024
FilleyMISSOURI72024
WallaceINDIANA52024
OlsburgKANSAS42024
Sni MillsMISSOURI41990
KearneyMISSOURI42024
St MorganILLINOIS32022
BrookvilleINDIANA32024
Witts StationINDIANA32024
Le LoupKANSAS32021
DanvilleMISSOURI32024
AuburnMISSOURI32023
PeoriaOKLAHOMA32023
MelroseILLINOIS21998
JamestownILLINOIS22017
BeaucoupILLINOIS22024
OlneyILLINOIS22016
ClaytonILLINOIS22023
Grape CreekILLINOIS22024
AthensILLINOIS22024
MonticelloINDIANA22019
ThorntownINDIANA22023
WabashINDIANA22024
FriendswoodINDIANA22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.