BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Parula In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Northern Parula in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 363% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+363%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
314Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 363% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Parula In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.8–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.8–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.11.72.4
20262.11.72.5
20272.11.72.5
20282.11.82.5
20292.21.82.5

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Northern Parula in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BrevardNORTH-CAROLINA312024
CherokeeNORTH-CAROLINA312024
FontanaNORTH-CAROLINA242024
IsomVIRGINIA212024
Pine Mtn.VIRGINIA202024
CullowheeNORTH-CAROLINA182024
KyleNORTH-CAROLINA162024
SmithfieldWEST-VIRGINIA162024
French Broad RiverNORTH-CAROLINA152024
MeccaTENNESSEE142023
MurphyNORTH-CAROLINA132024
HighlandsNORTH-CAROLINA132024
Borden Springs 2ALABAMA122024
Willis SprngTENNESSEE122023
Nat TunnelVIRGINIA122024
StollingsWEST-VIRGINIA122021
FayettevilleWEST-VIRGINIA121996
RiversideALABAMA112013
JenningsMARYLAND112024
BreedenWEST-VIRGINIA112024
Borden SprngALABAMA101998
Strange CrkWEST-VIRGINIA102024
Mountain CtyGEORGIA92024
Beattyville 2KENTUCKY92024
Elk ValleyTENNESSEE92022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.