BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Parula In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Northern Parula in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 379% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+379%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
315Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 379% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Parula In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.2 (95% range 1.8–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.2 (95% range 1.8–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.11.72.5
20272.11.82.5
20282.21.82.5
20292.21.82.6
20302.21.82.6

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Northern Parula in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FontanaNORTH-CAROLINA262025
IsomVIRGINIA212024
CullowheeNORTH-CAROLINA202025
French Broad RiverNORTH-CAROLINA182025
Pine Mtn.VIRGINIA172025
KyleNORTH-CAROLINA162024
BrevardNORTH-CAROLINA142025
LinvilleNORTH-CAROLINA142025
MeccaTENNESSEE142023
MurphyNORTH-CAROLINA132024
DenmarWEST-VIRGINIA132025
Borden Springs 2ALABAMA122024
Willis SprngTENNESSEE122023
Rural RetrtVIRGINIA122025
StollingsWEST-VIRGINIA122021
FayettevilleWEST-VIRGINIA121996
RiversideALABAMA112013
Mountain CtyGEORGIA112025
HighlandsNORTH-CAROLINA112025
BreedenWEST-VIRGINIA112024
Borden SprngALABAMA101998
CherokeeNORTH-CAROLINA102025
BattlecreekSOUTH-CAROLINA102025
PutnamVIRGINIA102025
Nat TunnelVIRGINIA102025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.