BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Parula In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Northern Parula in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 363% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+363%Since 1968
314Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Northern Parula has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 363% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.8–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029
2.2Projected 2029 index
1.8–2.595% range
±15.1%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20252.11.72.4
20262.11.72.5
20272.11.72.5
20282.11.82.5
20292.21.82.5

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Northern Parula in Appalachian Mountains.
BrevardNORTH-CAROLINA312024
CherokeeNORTH-CAROLINA312024
FontanaNORTH-CAROLINA242024
IsomVIRGINIA212024
Pine Mtn.VIRGINIA202024
CullowheeNORTH-CAROLINA182024
KyleNORTH-CAROLINA162024
SmithfieldWEST-VIRGINIA162024
French Broad RiverNORTH-CAROLINA152024
MeccaTENNESSEE142023
MurphyNORTH-CAROLINA132024
HighlandsNORTH-CAROLINA132024
Borden Springs 2ALABAMA122024
Willis SprngTENNESSEE122023
Nat TunnelVIRGINIA122024
StollingsWEST-VIRGINIA122021
FayettevilleWEST-VIRGINIA121996
RiversideALABAMA112013
JenningsMARYLAND112024
BreedenWEST-VIRGINIA112024
Borden SprngALABAMA101998
Strange CrkWEST-VIRGINIA102024
Mountain CtyGEORGIA92024
Beattyville 2KENTUCKY92024
Elk ValleyTENNESSEE92022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.