BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Parula In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieForest birds

Northern Parula in Gulf Coastal Prairie has collapsed: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-96%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has collapsed in Gulf Coastal Prairie: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±649%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±649%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±649%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.001.9
20260.000.001.9
20270.000.001.9
20280.000.001.9
20290.000.001.9

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Northern Parula in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LafitteLOUISIANA261991
Moon Lake 2TEXAS42024
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA22008
Hinkles FerTEXAS22024
Moon LakeTEXAS22009
HackberryLOUISIANA11994
GlencoeLOUISIANA12010
EstherLOUISIANA12023
KaplanLOUISIANA12014
VintonLOUISIANA12008
Vinton 2LOUISIANA12014
StowellTEXAS11990
Port AcresTEXAS12012
Goliad PrairieTEXAS12008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.