BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Parula In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Northern Parula in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 21× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

21×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
158Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 21× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Parula In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 6.0 (95% range 5.0–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.0–6.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 6.0 (95% range 5.0–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.64.66.5
20275.74.76.6
20285.84.86.7
20295.94.96.8
20306.05.06.9

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Northern Parula in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CascadeMISSOURI312025
Osage BeachMISSOURI252025
Beaverdam LkILLINOIS192023
ZionARKANSAS162025
ComptonARKANSAS162022
BremenILLINOIS162025
BelknapILLINOIS162025
SanduskyILLINOIS152023
CentervilleMISSOURI152025
Clementine 2MISSOURI152007
RoyaltonILLINOIS142025
Silver PtTENNESSEE142024
JoyKENTUCKY132023
Pond CreekTENNESSEE132025
Trace LewisTENNESSEE132017
HegiraKENTUCKY122024
GranitevilleMISSOURI122025
MarshallARKANSAS112021
RomeOHIO112025
CollinwoodTENNESSEE112025
PulaskiILLINOIS102025
GeorgiaINDIANA102025
Bays ForkKENTUCKY102019
LincolnMISSOURI102025
CentertonARKANSAS92025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.