BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Parula In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Northern Parula in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 22× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

22×Since 1968
158Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Northern Parula has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 22× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.9 (95% range 4.9–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2029
5.9Projected 2029 index
4.9–6.895% range
±15.1%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20255.54.56.4
20265.64.66.5
20275.74.76.6
20285.84.86.7
20295.94.96.8

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Northern Parula in Central Hardwoods.
CascadeMISSOURI212024
CollinwoodTENNESSEE202024
Beaverdam LkILLINOIS192023
GranitevilleMISSOURI192024
Osage BeachMISSOURI182024
GeorgiaINDIANA172024
ZionARKANSAS162024
ComptonARKANSAS162022
BremenILLINOIS162024
SanduskyILLINOIS152023
Clementine 2MISSOURI152007
PulaskiILLINOIS142024
Silver PtTENNESSEE142024
BelknapILLINOIS132024
JoyKENTUCKY132023
Trace LewisTENNESSEE132017
CantonKENTUCKY122024
HegiraKENTUCKY122024
WilliamsvillMISSOURI122024
CentervilleMISSOURI122024
RomeOHIO122024
Lewis ForestTENNESSEE122024
MarshallARKANSAS112021
Lebanon JunctionKENTUCKY112024
BarksMISSOURI112024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.