BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Parula In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Northern Parula in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 22× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

22×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
158Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 22× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Parula In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.9 (95% range 4.9–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.9–6.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.9 (95% range 4.9–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.54.56.4
20265.64.66.5
20275.74.76.6
20285.84.86.7
20295.94.96.8

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Northern Parula in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CascadeMISSOURI212024
CollinwoodTENNESSEE202024
Beaverdam LkILLINOIS192023
GranitevilleMISSOURI192024
Osage BeachMISSOURI182024
GeorgiaINDIANA172024
ZionARKANSAS162024
ComptonARKANSAS162022
BremenILLINOIS162024
SanduskyILLINOIS152023
Clementine 2MISSOURI152007
PulaskiILLINOIS142024
Silver PtTENNESSEE142024
BelknapILLINOIS132024
JoyKENTUCKY132023
Trace LewisTENNESSEE132017
CantonKENTUCKY122024
HegiraKENTUCKY122024
WilliamsvillMISSOURI122024
CentervilleMISSOURI122024
RomeOHIO122024
Lewis ForestTENNESSEE122024
MarshallARKANSAS112021
Lebanon JunctionKENTUCKY112024
BarksMISSOURI112024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.