BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Parula In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Northern Parula in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 330% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+330%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
103Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 330% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Parula In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 10% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 2.0–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 10% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 2.0–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.51.83.2
20272.61.93.3
20282.61.93.3
20292.61.93.3
20302.72.03.4

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Northern Parula in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LockportMINNESOTA222025
Gibbs CityMICHIGAN132025
Crane LakeMINNESOTA122025
Sawbill CampMINNESOTA112025
MareniscoMICHIGAN102019
IshpemingMICHIGAN102025
Imp LakeMICHIGAN102019
GlendaleMINNESOTA102025
BerglandMICHIGAN92022
Land O LakesWISCONSIN92016
Land O' Lakes 2WISCONSIN92025
JordanMINNESOTA82025
BlackduckMINNESOTA82022
Eagle RiverWISCONSIN82025
Brocky LakeMICHIGAN62025
MuskallongeMICHIGAN62024
Hart LakeMINNESOTA62025
Ned LakeMICHIGAN52025
Maple GroveMICHIGAN52025
HovlandMINNESOTA52025
BigforkMINNESOTA52025
Popple RiverWISCONSIN52025
RacoMICHIGAN42025
Cluster LakesMICHIGAN42009
Sawbill LndgMINNESOTA42025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.