BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Parula In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Northern Parula in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 347% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+347%Since 1968
103Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Northern Parula has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 347% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.9–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029
2.6Projected 2029 index
1.9–3.395% range
±12.8%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20252.51.83.2
20262.51.83.2
20272.61.83.3
20282.61.93.3
20292.61.93.3

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Northern Parula in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
LockportMINNESOTA272024
HovlandMINNESOTA122024
Crane LakeMINNESOTA112024
MareniscoMICHIGAN102019
Gibbs CityMICHIGAN102024
Imp LakeMICHIGAN102019
Sawbill CampMINNESOTA102024
BerglandMICHIGAN92022
Hart LakeMINNESOTA92024
Land O LakesWISCONSIN92016
IshpemingMICHIGAN82023
BlackduckMINNESOTA82022
GlendaleMINNESOTA72024
Eagle RiverWISCONSIN72024
ShingletonMICHIGAN62024
MuskallongeMICHIGAN62024
JordanMINNESOTA62023
BigforkMINNESOTA62024
Land O' Lakes 2WISCONSIN52024
Crystal FlsMICHIGAN42024
Maple GroveMICHIGAN42024
Cluster LakesMICHIGAN42009
Popple RiverWISCONSIN42024
CavourWISCONSIN42024
OntonagonMICHIGAN32019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.