BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Parula In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Northern Parula in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 347% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+347%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
103Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 347% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Parula In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.9–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.9–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.51.83.2
20262.51.83.2
20272.61.83.3
20282.61.93.3
20292.61.93.3

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Northern Parula in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LockportMINNESOTA272024
HovlandMINNESOTA122024
Crane LakeMINNESOTA112024
MareniscoMICHIGAN102019
Gibbs CityMICHIGAN102024
Imp LakeMICHIGAN102019
Sawbill CampMINNESOTA102024
BerglandMICHIGAN92022
Hart LakeMINNESOTA92024
Land O LakesWISCONSIN92016
IshpemingMICHIGAN82023
BlackduckMINNESOTA82022
GlendaleMINNESOTA72024
Eagle RiverWISCONSIN72024
ShingletonMICHIGAN62024
MuskallongeMICHIGAN62024
JordanMINNESOTA62023
BigforkMINNESOTA62024
Land O' Lakes 2WISCONSIN52024
Crystal FlsMICHIGAN42024
Maple GroveMICHIGAN42024
Cluster LakesMICHIGAN42009
Popple RiverWISCONSIN42024
CavourWISCONSIN42024
OntonagonMICHIGAN32019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.