BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Parula In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Northern Parula in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 259% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+259%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 259% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Parula In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 61% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 3.0–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+61%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–5.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 61% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 3.0–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.12.85.4
20264.22.95.5
20274.22.95.5
20284.33.05.6
20294.43.05.7

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Northern Parula in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KraemerLOUISIANA302024
RamahLOUISIANA162024
DundeeMISSISSIPPI162022
Warren VickMISSISSIPPI162022
MaynardARKANSAS102024
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS102024
FreetownLOUISIANA102009
BerwickLOUISIANA102018
South BendARKANSAS92023
Morgan CityLOUISIANA61986
HughesARKANSAS52023
GibsonLOUISIANA52015
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE52023
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY42024
WintervilleMISSISSIPPI42011
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI42018
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI42024
CarlisleLOUISIANA31987
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA32024
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA32024
West TylerARKANSAS21975
HarrisburgARKANSAS22019
SaffellARKANSAS22019
KelsoARKANSAS22011
KeystoneLOUISIANA22013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.