BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Parula In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Northern Parula in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 259% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+259%Since 1968
59Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Northern Parula has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 259% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 61% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 3.0–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+61%Change by 2029
4.4Projected 2029 index
3.0–5.795% range
±30.2%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20254.12.85.4
20264.22.95.5
20274.22.95.5
20284.33.05.6
20294.43.05.7

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Northern Parula in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
KraemerLOUISIANA302024
RamahLOUISIANA162024
DundeeMISSISSIPPI162022
Warren VickMISSISSIPPI162022
MaynardARKANSAS102024
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS102024
FreetownLOUISIANA102009
BerwickLOUISIANA102018
South BendARKANSAS92023
Morgan CityLOUISIANA61986
HughesARKANSAS52023
GibsonLOUISIANA52015
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE52023
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY42024
WintervilleMISSISSIPPI42011
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI42018
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI42024
CarlisleLOUISIANA31987
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA32024
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA32024
West TylerARKANSAS21975
HarrisburgARKANSAS22019
SaffellARKANSAS22019
KelsoARKANSAS22011
KeystoneLOUISIANA22013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.