BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Parula In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Northern Parula in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 121% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+121%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Parula in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Northern Parula In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 47% by 2028 — from 0.06 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.01–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-47%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 47% by 2028 — from 0.06 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.01–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.030.010.05
20250.030.010.05
20260.030.010.05
20270.030.010.05
20280.030.010.05

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Northern Parula in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Packertown 2INDIANA22023
FowlervilleMICHIGAN21986
KewannaINDIANA12016
MiddleburyINDIANA12010
Columbia CtyINDIANA11982
PackertownINDIANA11991
Indiana DuneINDIANA12000
ScottvilleMICHIGAN11979
BravoMICHIGAN12023
MontereyMICHIGAN12004
MottvilleMICHIGAN12004
OlaMICHIGAN12013
HartlandMICHIGAN11996
Chippewa Lk.MICHIGAN12014
New BuffaloMICHIGAN12014
Allegan WmaMICHIGAN12007
AlmenaMICHIGAN12008
Barry S.G.A.MICHIGAN12007
EvergreenMINNESOTA12014
DresserWISCONSIN12018
LoraineWISCONSIN12007
CumberlandWISCONSIN12016
WeyerhauserWISCONSIN11974
MerrillWISCONSIN12003
EsdaileWISCONSIN12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.