Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Northern Parula In Prairie Hardwood Transition
Northern Parula in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 121% on the route-weighted index since 1974.
+121%Since 1974
32Routes In Region
36Years
Notable Signals
No notable trend signals for Northern Parula in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 47% by 2028 — from 0.06 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.01–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-47%Change by 2028
0.03Projected 2028 index
0.01–0.0595% range
±57%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| 2025 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| 2026 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| 2027 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| 2028 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.05 |
Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition
| Packertown 2 | INDIANA | 2 | 2023 |
| Fowlerville | MICHIGAN | 2 | 1986 |
| Kewanna | INDIANA | 1 | 2016 |
| Middlebury | INDIANA | 1 | 2010 |
| Columbia Cty | INDIANA | 1 | 1982 |
| Packertown | INDIANA | 1 | 1991 |
| Indiana Dune | INDIANA | 1 | 2000 |
| Scottville | MICHIGAN | 1 | 1979 |
| Bravo | MICHIGAN | 1 | 2023 |
| Monterey | MICHIGAN | 1 | 2004 |
| Mottville | MICHIGAN | 1 | 2004 |
| Ola | MICHIGAN | 1 | 2013 |
| Hartland | MICHIGAN | 1 | 1996 |
| Chippewa Lk. | MICHIGAN | 1 | 2014 |
| New Buffalo | MICHIGAN | 1 | 2014 |
| Allegan Wma | MICHIGAN | 1 | 2007 |
| Almena | MICHIGAN | 1 | 2008 |
| Barry S.G.A. | MICHIGAN | 1 | 2007 |
| Evergreen | MINNESOTA | 1 | 2014 |
| Dresser | WISCONSIN | 1 | 2018 |
| Loraine | WISCONSIN | 1 | 2007 |
| Cumberland | WISCONSIN | 1 | 2016 |
| Weyerhauser | WISCONSIN | 1 | 1974 |
| Merrill | WISCONSIN | 1 | 2003 |
| Esdaile | WISCONSIN | 1 | 2015 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.