BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Parula In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Northern Parula in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has increased: up 49% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+49%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Parula in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Northern Parula In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.67–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.67–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.67–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.652.2
20261.40.662.2
20271.40.662.2
20281.40.672.2
20291.40.672.2

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Northern Parula in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NanceARKANSAS142024
PrincetonARKANSAS102021
StarkARKANSAS82024
Flat CreekLOUISIANA82024
NatchezLOUISIANA72024
Hee MountainOKLAHOMA72024
Princeton 2ARKANSAS62022
Town BluffTEXAS62024
Coal HillARKANSAS52023
Mer RougeLOUISIANA52008
EnterpriseLOUISIANA52024
DibollTEXAS52024
WechesTEXAS52024
RamseyARKANSAS41996
StampsARKANSAS42015
HollywoodARKANSAS42024
Magazine MtnARKANSAS42021
CypressLOUISIANA41987
Mount UnionLOUISIANA42024
Lake CoveLOUISIANA42017
CrowsARKANSAS31991
SimsARKANSAS32024
Dry ForkARKANSAS32023
Hatfield 2ARKANSAS32024
EastonLOUISIANA31990

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.