BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Parula In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Northern Parula in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has increased: up 49% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+49%Since 1969
96Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

No notable trend signals for Northern Parula in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.67–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2029
1.4Projected 2029 index
0.67–2.295% range
±45.5%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.40.652.2
20261.40.662.2
20271.40.662.2
20281.40.672.2
20291.40.672.2

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Northern Parula in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
NanceARKANSAS142024
PrincetonARKANSAS102021
StarkARKANSAS82024
Flat CreekLOUISIANA82024
NatchezLOUISIANA72024
Hee MountainOKLAHOMA72024
Princeton 2ARKANSAS62022
Town BluffTEXAS62024
Coal HillARKANSAS52023
Mer RougeLOUISIANA52008
EnterpriseLOUISIANA52024
DibollTEXAS52024
WechesTEXAS52024
RamseyARKANSAS41996
StampsARKANSAS42015
HollywoodARKANSAS42024
Magazine MtnARKANSAS42021
CypressLOUISIANA41987
Mount UnionLOUISIANA42024
Lake CoveLOUISIANA42017
CrowsARKANSAS31991
SimsARKANSAS32024
Dry ForkARKANSAS32023
Hatfield 2ARKANSAS32024
EastonLOUISIANA31990

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.