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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Parula In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Northern Parula in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has risen sharply: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+70%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has risen sharply in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Parula In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.71–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-46%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.71–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.71–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.50.682.4
20271.50.692.4
20281.60.702.4
20291.60.712.4
20301.60.712.4

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Northern Parula in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Magazine MtnARKANSAS172025
NanceARKANSAS132025
PrincetonARKANSAS102021
WomackLOUISIANA102025
StarkARKANSAS92025
Dry Fork 2ARKANSAS82025
Derry 2LOUISIANA82025
Hee MountainOKLAHOMA72024
Princeton 2ARKANSAS62022
Flat CreekLOUISIANA62025
NatchezLOUISIANA62025
DibollTEXAS62025
WechesTEXAS62025
Coal HillARKANSAS52023
Mer RougeLOUISIANA52008
Mount UnionLOUISIANA52025
MatoyOKLAHOMA52025
RamseyARKANSAS41996
StampsARKANSAS42015
HollywoodARKANSAS42024
StephensARKANSAS42025
CypressLOUISIANA41987
Lake CoveLOUISIANA42017
BethelOKLAHOMA42025
SandbluffOKLAHOMA42025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.