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Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Parula In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Northern Parula in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 725% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+725%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
141Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 725% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Parula In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 6.5 (95% range 5.0–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.0–8.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 6.5 (95% range 5.0–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.24.67.7
20276.34.77.8
20286.44.87.9
20296.44.98.0
20306.55.08.1

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Northern Parula in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NorthfieldMAINE621981
ClarksvilleNEW-HAMPSHIRE382025
InletNEW-YORK362017
AuroraMAINE332021
CooperMAINE332021
Forest StaMAINE282000
WinnMAINE272025
NesowadnehunMAINE272021
Carrying PlMAINE242025
WaiteMAINE241977
Grnd Lk StrmMAINE232000
BrooksMAINE222021
WytopitlockMAINE222025
Horse MtnMAINE222011
Wilson MillsMAINE212025
HudsonMAINE212016
Weeks BrookMAINE212016
EastbrookMAINE202025
Seboomook LkMAINE202014
Dixville Notch 2NEW-HAMPSHIRE202025
East TroyMAINE192021
MedwayMAINE192025
GabrielsNEW-YORK192025
TopsfieldMAINE171996
Baker LakeMAINE152009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.