BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Parula In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Northern Parula in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 685% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+685%Since 1968
140Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Northern Parula has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 685% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.4 (95% range 4.9–8.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2029
6.4Projected 2029 index
4.9–8.095% range
±20.4%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20256.04.57.6
20266.14.67.7
20276.24.77.8
20286.34.87.9
20296.44.98.0

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Northern Parula in Atlantic Northern Forest.
NorthfieldMAINE621981
ClarksvilleNEW-HAMPSHIRE382024
InletNEW-YORK362017
AuroraMAINE332021
CooperMAINE332021
Dixville Notch 2NEW-HAMPSHIRE312024
WinnMAINE282022
Forest StaMAINE282000
NesowadnehunMAINE272021
WaiteMAINE241977
Grnd Lk StrmMAINE232000
EastbrookMAINE222024
WytopitlockMAINE221998
Horse MtnMAINE222011
HudsonMAINE212016
Weeks BrookMAINE212016
Seboomook LkMAINE202014
Carrying PlMAINE182024
CharlestonMAINE182019
MedwayMAINE172018
TopsfieldMAINE171996
BrooksMAINE162019
HermonMAINE152019
Baker LakeMAINE152009
AndoverMAINE152021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.