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Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Parula In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Northern Parula in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 685% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+685%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
140Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 685% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Parula In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.4 (95% range 4.9–8.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.9–8.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.4 (95% range 4.9–8.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.04.57.6
20266.14.67.7
20276.24.77.8
20286.34.87.9
20296.44.98.0

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Northern Parula in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NorthfieldMAINE621981
ClarksvilleNEW-HAMPSHIRE382024
InletNEW-YORK362017
AuroraMAINE332021
CooperMAINE332021
Dixville Notch 2NEW-HAMPSHIRE312024
WinnMAINE282022
Forest StaMAINE282000
NesowadnehunMAINE272021
WaiteMAINE241977
Grnd Lk StrmMAINE232000
EastbrookMAINE222024
WytopitlockMAINE221998
Horse MtnMAINE222011
HudsonMAINE212016
Weeks BrookMAINE212016
Seboomook LkMAINE202014
Carrying PlMAINE182024
CharlestonMAINE182019
MedwayMAINE172018
TopsfieldMAINE171996
BrooksMAINE162019
HermonMAINE152019
Baker LakeMAINE152009
AndoverMAINE152021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.