BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Parula In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontForest birds

Northern Parula in Piedmont has surged: up 377% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+377%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
143Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has surged in Piedmont: up 377% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Parula In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Piedmont is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.7–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Piedmont is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.7–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.21.62.9
20262.31.62.9
20272.31.63.0
20282.31.73.0
20292.41.73.0

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Northern Parula in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Liberty City 2ALABAMA152024
WedoweeALABAMA132023
Piedmont NwrGEORGIA122003
GuptonNORTH-CAROLINA122024
MillervilleALABAMA102024
EarltonMARYLAND102024
BullockNORTH-CAROLINA102024
OsmondNORTH-CAROLINA102024
Nixburg 2ALABAMA92024
Liberty CityALABAMA82011
JulietteGEORGIA82024
WhitesburgGEORGIA82024
WashingtonGEORGIA72024
MannboroVIRGINIA72024
LanettALABAMA62024
EdenNORTH-CAROLINA62024
Uwharrie NfNORTH-CAROLINA62001
Salem XrdSOUTH-CAROLINA62019
Plum BranchSOUTH-CAROLINA62024
Church RoadVIRGINIA62024
RutledgeGEORGIA52024
Hollonville 2GEORGIA52022
Yates CrossroadsGEORGIA52024
Stoney PointGEORGIA52007
YoungsvilleNORTH-CAROLINA52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.