BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Parula In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontForest birds

Northern Parula in Piedmont has surged: up 405% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+405%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
143Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has surged in Piedmont: up 405% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Parula In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Piedmont is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 3.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.8–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Piedmont is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 3.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.8–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.31.63.0
20272.41.73.1
20282.41.73.1
20292.51.83.1
20302.51.83.2

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Northern Parula in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BullockNORTH-CAROLINA152025
WedoweeALABAMA132023
YoungsvilleNORTH-CAROLINA132025
JulietteGEORGIA122025
Piedmont NwrGEORGIA122003
GuptonNORTH-CAROLINA122025
GreenwoodSOUTH-CAROLINA122025
MillervilleALABAMA102025
WashingtonGEORGIA102025
EarltonMARYLAND102024
OsmondNORTH-CAROLINA102025
Nixburg 2ALABAMA92025
RutledgeGEORGIA92025
WhitesburgGEORGIA92025
Liberty CityALABAMA82011
IrisburgVIRGINIA82025
LanettALABAMA62024
Liberty City 2ALABAMA62025
Yates CrossroadsGEORGIA62025
EdenNORTH-CAROLINA62025
WilgroveNORTH-CAROLINA62025
Uwharrie NfNORTH-CAROLINA62001
Salem XrdSOUTH-CAROLINA62019
LowrysSOUTH-CAROLINA62025
Owings 2SOUTH-CAROLINA62025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.