BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Parula In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesForest birds

Northern Parula in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 306% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+306%Since 1969
34Routes In Region
55Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Northern Parula has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 305% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 0.55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.67 (95% range 0.32–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2029
0.67Projected 2029 index
0.32–1.095% range
±20.2%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.630.280.97
20260.640.290.99
20270.650.301.00
20280.660.311.0
20290.670.321.0

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Northern Parula in Oaks and Prairies.
BurtonTEXAS82023
HeyburnOKLAHOMA72024
NobleOKLAHOMA42024
PaigeTEXAS42023
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA32023
Arenosa CrkTEXAS32024
Thornton 3TEXAS32018
DecaturTEXAS32024
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA22017
Oak GroveTEXAS21999
YoakumTEXAS22024
Gambill Ref.TEXAS22024
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA11987
BeggsOKLAHOMA12023
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA12019
TatumsOKLAHOMA12024
SkiatookOKLAHOMA11992
HobsonTEXAS12009
MuldoonTEXAS12024
Lone OakTEXAS12012
GauseTEXAS11994
Peach CreekTEXAS11986
Massey LakeTEXAS12022
ThorntonTEXAS11979
DikeTEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.