BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Parula In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesForest birds

Northern Parula in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 306% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+306%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 305% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Parula In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 0.55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.67 (95% range 0.32–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.67Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.32–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 0.55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.67 (95% range 0.32–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.630.280.97
20260.640.290.99
20270.650.301.00
20280.660.311.0
20290.670.321.0

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Northern Parula in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BurtonTEXAS82023
HeyburnOKLAHOMA72024
NobleOKLAHOMA42024
PaigeTEXAS42023
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA32023
Arenosa CrkTEXAS32024
Thornton 3TEXAS32018
DecaturTEXAS32024
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA22017
Oak GroveTEXAS21999
YoakumTEXAS22024
Gambill Ref.TEXAS22024
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA11987
BeggsOKLAHOMA12023
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA12019
TatumsOKLAHOMA12024
SkiatookOKLAHOMA11992
HobsonTEXAS12009
MuldoonTEXAS12024
Lone OakTEXAS12012
GauseTEXAS11994
Peach CreekTEXAS11986
Massey LakeTEXAS12022
ThorntonTEXAS11979
DikeTEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.