BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Parula In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaForest birds

Northern Parula in Peninsular Florida has surged: up 375% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+375%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has surged in Peninsular Florida: up 375% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Parula In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.9 (95% range 7.0–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.0–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.9 (95% range 7.0–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.36.512
20279.56.612
20289.66.712
20299.76.913
20309.97.013

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Northern Parula in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Polk CityFLORIDA412025
Ft MccoyFLORIDA362025
St AugustineFLORIDA342025
San AntonioFLORIDA302025
BelmoreFLORIDA282024
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA282025
Island GroveFLORIDA232025
Mt. OliveFLORIDA232025
MicanopyFLORIDA221991
Citrus ParkFLORIDA222025
Mabel 2FLORIDA182025
GoetheFLORIDA172025
KenansvilleFLORIDA152025
Lake BuffumFLORIDA152024
OcalaFLORIDA152025
CroomFLORIDA142025
Green SwampFLORIDA142025
ScottsmoorFLORIDA132025
CrewsvilleFLORIDA132025
NobletonFLORIDA112025
GardnerFLORIDA101999
RomeoFLORIDA92025
Devils GardnFLORIDA92025
Ridge HarborFLORIDA92025
MabelFLORIDA82011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.