BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Parula In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaForest birds

Northern Parula in Peninsular Florida has surged: up 347% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+347%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Parula has surged in Peninsular Florida: up 347% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Parula In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.5 (95% range 6.7–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.7–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.5 (95% range 6.7–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.06.212
20269.16.312
20279.26.512
20289.46.612
20299.56.712

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Northern Parula in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Island GroveFLORIDA562024
St AugustineFLORIDA332024
San AntonioFLORIDA322024
BelmoreFLORIDA282024
Polk CityFLORIDA282024
Ft MccoyFLORIDA272024
Citrus ParkFLORIDA272024
Mt. OliveFLORIDA242024
MicanopyFLORIDA221991
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA222024
NobletonFLORIDA192024
CrewsvilleFLORIDA192024
Green SwampFLORIDA172024
Lake BuffumFLORIDA152024
ScottsmoorFLORIDA142024
KenansvilleFLORIDA132024
CroomFLORIDA132024
RomeoFLORIDA112024
ChassahowitzFLORIDA112024
GardnerFLORIDA101999
AripekaFLORIDA92023
GoetheFLORIDA92024
MabelFLORIDA82011
KissimmeeFLORIDA82022
Ridge HarborFLORIDA82024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.