BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Parula In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaForest birds

Northern Parula in Peninsular Florida has surged: up 347% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+347%Since 1968
56Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Northern Parula has surged in Peninsular Florida: up 347% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.5 (95% range 6.7–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2029
9.5Projected 2029 index
6.7–1295% range
±25.8%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20259.06.212
20269.16.312
20279.26.512
20289.46.612
20299.56.712

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Northern Parula in Peninsular Florida.
Island GroveFLORIDA562024
St AugustineFLORIDA332024
San AntonioFLORIDA322024
BelmoreFLORIDA282024
Polk CityFLORIDA282024
Ft MccoyFLORIDA272024
Citrus ParkFLORIDA272024
Mt. OliveFLORIDA242024
MicanopyFLORIDA221991
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA222024
NobletonFLORIDA192024
CrewsvilleFLORIDA192024
Green SwampFLORIDA172024
Lake BuffumFLORIDA152024
ScottsmoorFLORIDA142024
KenansvilleFLORIDA132024
CroomFLORIDA132024
RomeoFLORIDA112024
ChassahowitzFLORIDA112024
GardnerFLORIDA101999
AripekaFLORIDA92023
GoetheFLORIDA92024
MabelFLORIDA82011
KissimmeeFLORIDA82022
Ridge HarborFLORIDA82024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.