Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Northern Parula In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain
Northern Parula in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 90% on the route-weighted index since 1974.
+90%Since 1974
17Routes In Region
26Years
Notable Signals
No notable trend signals for Northern Parula in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.01–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
n/aChange by 2029
0.04Projected 2029 index
0.01–0.0795% range
±26%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.07 |
| 2026 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.07 |
| 2027 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.07 |
| 2028 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.07 |
| 2029 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.07 |
Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain
| W Shokan | NEW-YORK | 2 | 1968 |
| Parishville | NEW-YORK | 2 | 2024 |
| Highland | NEW-YORK | 1 | 1969 |
| Austerlitz | NEW-YORK | 1 | 1979 |
| Ghent | NEW-YORK | 1 | 1977 |
| Oriskany Fls | NEW-YORK | 1 | 2005 |
| Penfield | NEW-YORK | 1 | 2014 |
| Pulaski | NEW-YORK | 1 | 2022 |
| Hopkinton | NEW-YORK | 1 | 2019 |
| Willsboro | NEW-YORK | 1 | 2009 |
| Balmat | NEW-YORK | 1 | 1989 |
| Pittsfield | OHIO | 1 | 2021 |
| Strongsville | OHIO | 1 | 1976 |
| New Somerset | OHIO | 1 | 1976 |
| Hebron | OHIO | 1 | 2023 |
| North Pownal | VERMONT | 1 | 1979 |
| Hinesburg | VERMONT | 1 | 1978 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.