BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Parula In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Northern Parula in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 146% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+146%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Parula in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Northern Parula In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 48% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.01–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-48%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.0895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Parula in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 48% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.01–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.040.010.08
20270.040.010.08
20280.040.010.08
20290.040.010.08
20300.040.010.08

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Northern Parula in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
W ShokanNEW-YORK21968
RhinebeckNEW-YORK12025
HighlandNEW-YORK11969
AusterlitzNEW-YORK11979
GhentNEW-YORK11977
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK12005
PenfieldNEW-YORK12014
PulaskiNEW-YORK12022
ParishvilleNEW-YORK12025
HopkintonNEW-YORK12019
WillsboroNEW-YORK12009
BalmatNEW-YORK11989
PittsfieldOHIO12021
StrongsvilleOHIO11976
LucerneOHIO12025
New SomersetOHIO11976
HebronOHIO12023
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA12025
North PownalVERMONT11979
HinesburgVERMONT11978

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.