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Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bell's Vireo Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Bell's Vireo in Missouri has surged: up 126% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+126%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bell's Vireo Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bell's Vireo has surged in Missouri: up 126% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Bell's Vireo Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Bell's Vireo in Missouri is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 0.79 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.64 (95% range 0.15–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.64Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.15–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bell's Vireo in Missouri is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 0.79 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.64 (95% range 0.15–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.640.151.1
20270.640.151.1
20280.640.151.1
20290.640.151.1
20300.640.151.1

Bell's Vireo Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Bell's Vireo in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mcfall720251996
Ohio620251972
Huntsville620251977
Frankford620241985
New Point520251994
Rockingham420251971
Harrisonville420252017
Kahoka2320242005
Lucerne320212019
Rensselaer320232005
Stet319951972
Kahoka319951971
Diamond320252015
New Hampton320242016
Kearney320232009
Norborne220212006
Sweden219851985
Cp Girardeau220251967
Watson220242006
Graydon220251969
Filley220251975
Warren219711967
Frazier220241967
Trenton220241975
Miller220242021

Bell's Vireo Population Trend in Other States

arizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymichiganminnesotanebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaohiooklahomasouth-dakotatexasutahwisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.