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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bell's Vireo Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Bell's Vireo in Arkansas has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-64%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bell's Vireo Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bell's Vireo has fallen sharply in Arkansas: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Bell's Vireo Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Bell's Vireo in Arkansas is projected to fall about 64% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-64%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bell's Vireo in Arkansas is projected to fall about 64% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.34
20260.060.000.33
20270.060.000.33
20280.060.000.33
20290.050.000.32

Bell's Vireo Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Bell's Vireo in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rupert1619931970
Coal Hill320121967
Poyen 2320152008
Stamps219711971
Ashdown219951994
Hatfield 2220242017
Fulton220241987
Centerton220232010
Farwell220182010
Eudora119751967
Locust Bayou120082008
Hope120222022
Hughes119751975
West Tyler119801976
Crowley'S Ridge120162012
Crows119711971
Harrisburg119971974
Augusta119801967
Saffell120142009
Stark120002000
Massard120181967
Maynard120111969
Zion120161969
Avoca120221967
Russell120212010

Bell's Vireo Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymichiganminnesotamissourinebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaohiooklahomasouth-dakotatexasutahwisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.