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Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bell's Vireo Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesForest birds

Bell's Vireo in Oklahoma has fallen sharply: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-66%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bell's Vireo Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bell's Vireo has fallen sharply in Oklahoma: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Bell's Vireo Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Bell's Vireo in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 48% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.94 (95% range 0.00–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-48%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.94Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bell's Vireo in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 48% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.94 (95% range 0.00–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.003.2
20260.990.003.2
20270.970.003.1
20280.960.003.1
20290.940.003.1

Bell's Vireo Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Bell's Vireo in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Blanco1320161967
Indianola1020241967
Bartlesville820241967
Matoy820001992
Heyburn820241992
Wainwright720131992
Ardmore520061969
Grimes520241967
Keetonville520221992
Phroso420241991
Mcalester319911967
Noble320221967
Erick320231969
Foraker320241995
Ft Sill East319941994
Phillips220081968
Mill Creek220181968
Holdenville220241967
Beggs220211967
Welch220241967
Collinsville220121967
Tegarden220111970
Sandbluff219931993
Sickles220181996
Hunter220242024

Bell's Vireo Population Trend in Other States

arizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymichiganminnesotamissourinebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaohiosouth-dakotatexasutahwisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.