BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bell's Vireo Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Bell's Vireo in New Mexico has surged: up 816% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

+816%Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bell's Vireo Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bell's Vireo has surged in New Mexico: up 816% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

Bell's Vireo Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Bell's Vireo in New Mexico is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 0.65 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.83 (95% range 0.61–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.83Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.61–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bell's Vireo in New Mexico is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 0.65 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.83 (95% range 0.61–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19902029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.740.520.95
20260.760.550.97
20270.780.571.00
20280.810.591.0
20290.830.611.0

Bell's Vireo Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Bell's Vireo in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red Rock2020241992
Laborcita420192007
Rodeo420242010
Hatchet Peak320242003
Columbus320242001
Gage220212012
Bitter Lake120112011
Emory Pass119981993
Queen120082008
Sabinoso120142014
Cooley Lake120212021
Roswell120231990
Sunshine Wll120072007
Lakewood120111991

Bell's Vireo Population Trend in Other States

arizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymichiganminnesotamissourinebraskanevadanorth-dakotaohiooklahomasouth-dakotatexasutahwisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.