BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bell's Vireo Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Bell's Vireo in New Mexico has surged: up 800% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

+800%Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bell's Vireo Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bell's Vireo has surged in New Mexico: up 800% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

Bell's Vireo Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Bell's Vireo in New Mexico is projected to rise about 31% by 2030 — from 0.64 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.84 (95% range 0.62–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.84Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.62–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bell's Vireo in New Mexico is projected to rise about 31% by 2030 — from 0.64 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.84 (95% range 0.62–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19902030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.750.530.96
20270.770.560.98
20280.790.581.0
20290.810.601.0
20300.840.621.1

Bell's Vireo Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Bell's Vireo in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red Rock2020251992
Laborcita420192007
Laborcita 2320252025
Columbus320242001
Gage220212012
Jornada220252025
Bitter Lake120112011
Emory Pass119981993
Queen120082008
Sabinoso120142014
Cooley Lake120212021
Hatchet Peak120252003
Roswell120251990
Sunshine Wll120072007
Lakewood120111991
Rodeo120252010

Bell's Vireo Population Trend in Other States

arizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymichiganminnesotamissourinebraskanevadanorth-dakotaohiooklahomasouth-dakotatexasutahwisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.