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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bell's Vireo Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Bell's Vireo in Texas has surged: up 124% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+124%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
141Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bell's Vireo Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bell's Vireo has surged in Texas: up 124% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Bell's Vireo Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Bell's Vireo in Texas is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 4.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 2.8–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–5.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bell's Vireo in Texas is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 4.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 2.8–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.92.65.1
20273.92.75.2
20284.02.75.2
20294.02.85.3
20304.12.85.3

Bell's Vireo Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Bell's Vireo in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rockspring5620251994
Harper5120251969
San Saba4820251969
Montell4320251995
Eldorado4120231986
Ozona 24020252025
Valley Spgs3920251968
Ozona3720221975
Pear Valley3520251969
Devils R Cyn3520251994
Longfellow2820251968
Allen Creek2720251994
Prairie Mtn.2520251994
Mertzon2020191967
Toyahvale2020251996
Sierra Blanc2020251999
Comstock1920251967
Indian Mtn1920251976
Adamsville1720251979
Dove Mtn.1620062003
Winchell1520251969
Pumpville1520252006
La Pryor1420091969
Mertzon 21420252022
Bear Mtn1420251997

Bell's Vireo Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.