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Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Louisiana Waterthrush in Missouri has surged: up 198% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+198%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Louisiana Waterthrush Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Louisiana Waterthrush has surged in Missouri: up 198% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in Missouri is projected to rise about 68% by 2030 — from 0.31 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.35–0.68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+68%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.52Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.35–0.6895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in Missouri is projected to rise about 68% by 2030 — from 0.31 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.35–0.68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.490.330.65
20270.500.330.66
20280.500.340.67
20290.510.350.68
20300.520.350.68

Louisiana Waterthrush Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Louisiana Waterthrush in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Barks420251994
Cascade320251968
Moselle320252001
Cassville220111988
Syracuse220241972
Gerald220232015
House Springs220242018
Mincy220232018
Williamsvill220241997
Crane220241994
Centerville220251994
Marshfield220172004
Milford220212021
Union219991991
Graniteville220251990
Deventer119881988
Pulaski120211980
Peace Valley119991975
Sweden120251973
Pineville120161988
Cp Girardeau120052005
Kahoka2120192019
Watson120222022
Wesco120221988
Clementine119941976

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.