BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Louisiana Waterthrush in New York has declined: down 33% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-33%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Louisiana Waterthrush Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Louisiana Waterthrush in New York. See the full index history below.

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in New York is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.01–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±143.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±143.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in New York is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.01–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±143.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.010.26
20260.130.010.25
20270.130.010.25
20280.130.010.25
20290.130.010.25

Louisiana Waterthrush Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Louisiana Waterthrush in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
S Berne 2320242016
Oxford 2220111991
Westbrookvle220181966
Petersburg220111966
Catskills220111977
Ghent220161993
Medusa220022002
Oneonta220241973
Oxford219751971
E Newark220141979
Swain219851985
Purdy220211980
Warrensburg220151966
Naples219981966
Huntington119811981
Bedford119961969
Rhinebeck120181967
Highland120001983
Rifton119861977
W Shokan120191970
Mt Hope119931993
Austerlitz120221983
Durham119741974
Meridale120211988
Cobleskill120231970

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.