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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Louisiana Waterthrush in North Carolina has surged: up 385% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+385%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Louisiana Waterthrush Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Louisiana Waterthrush has surged in North Carolina: up 385% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in North Carolina is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 0.51 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.27–0.96). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.61Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.27–0.9695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in North Carolina is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 0.51 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.27–0.96). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.590.240.94
20260.590.250.94
20270.600.260.95
20280.610.260.95
20290.610.270.96

Louisiana Waterthrush Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Louisiana Waterthrush in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Speed420241986
Hamlet320222021
Rheasville320172005
Cherokee320242011
Fontana220241968
Youngsville220241966
Rowland220231990
California 2220242014
Hendersonvil220232002
Murphy220242009
Durham220241993
Todd220231995
Bullock220231997
Mount Airy220182007
Sturgills220242010
French Broad River220242001
Busick220021994
Wards Corner119891982
Hallsboro120041992
Fairmont119721972
Arapahoe119921992
Beargrass119691969
Kinston120231968
Jordan119971983
Rose120241980

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorkohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.