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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Louisiana Waterthrush in North Carolina has surged: up 447% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+447%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Louisiana Waterthrush Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Louisiana Waterthrush has surged in North Carolina: up 447% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.62 (95% range 0.28–0.96). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.62Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.28–0.9695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.62 (95% range 0.28–0.96). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.600.260.94
20270.600.260.95
20280.610.270.95
20290.620.270.96
20300.620.280.96

Louisiana Waterthrush Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Louisiana Waterthrush in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fontana920251968
Cherokee420252011
Rheasville320172005
French Broad River320252001
Dudley320252005
Rowland220231990
California 2220252014
Hendersonvil220232002
Murphy220242009
Durham220241993
Mount Airy220182007
Sturgills220242010
Cypress Lakes220252025
Waterville220251994
Busick220021994
Wards Corner119891982
Hallsboro120041992
Fairmont119721972
Arapahoe119921992
Beargrass119691969
Speed120251986
Kinston120231968
Jordan119971983
Rose120251980
Climax120161967

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorkohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.