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Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesForest birds

Louisiana Waterthrush in New Jersey has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-2%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Louisiana Waterthrush Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Louisiana Waterthrush in New Jersey. See the full index history below.

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in New Jersey is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.03–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±170.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±170.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in New Jersey is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.03–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±170.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.210.020.39
20260.210.030.39
20270.210.030.39
20280.210.030.39
20290.210.030.39

Louisiana Waterthrush Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Louisiana Waterthrush in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dover620181979
Kemah Lake320241977
Hope219891975
Midvale220161972
Woodbury Hgt120132006
Greenwich119821982
Deepwater119761976
Cape May Ch119961993
Pedricktown119911991
Sandbrook119981998
Winslow120101993
Pedricktown 2120132013
Croton119821982
Bloomsbury120051996
High Point120221977
Croton 2120122012
Ramseysburg120241995
Keyport120032003

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.