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Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

Louisiana Waterthrush in Kentucky has surged: up 119% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+119%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Louisiana Waterthrush Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Louisiana Waterthrush has surged in Kentucky: up 119% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in Kentucky is projected to rise about 81% by 2029 — from 0.54 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.97 (95% range 0.58–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+81%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.97Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.58–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in Kentucky is projected to rise about 81% by 2029 — from 0.54 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.97 (95% range 0.58–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.920.531.3
20260.930.541.3
20270.950.551.3
20280.960.571.4
20290.970.581.4

Louisiana Waterthrush Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Louisiana Waterthrush in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cumberlnd Gp1020181966
Beattyville 2520242006
Sunnybrook320221994
Carter320241976
Joy320231968
Canton220181968
Bardwell219941967
Pine Ridge219781966
Merrimac220241967
Drakesboro219931971
Daniel Boone219881969
Kehoe219821972
Mammoth Cave220142000
Phelps219971979
Levee 2220172010
Brownsville120242024
Lovelacevile120181977
Shiloh120231982
Keysburg119841970
Cedar Grove120061988
Iron Bridge119681968
Sulphur Lick120242001
Hegira120212001
Monticello120221993
Dixon120052005

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.