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Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

Louisiana Waterthrush in Kentucky has increased: up 44% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+44%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Louisiana Waterthrush Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Louisiana Waterthrush in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in Kentucky is projected to rise about 242% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.93 (95% range 0.51–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+242%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.93Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.51–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±79.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in Kentucky is projected to rise about 242% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.93 (95% range 0.51–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.890.471.3
20270.900.481.3
20280.910.491.3
20290.920.501.3
20300.930.511.4

Louisiana Waterthrush Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Louisiana Waterthrush in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cumberlnd Gp1020181966
Beattyville 2520242006
Sunnybrook320221994
Joy320231968
Canton220181968
Bardwell219941967
Pine Ridge219781966
Carter220251976
Merrimac220241967
Drakesboro219931971
Daniel Boone219881969
Kehoe219821972
Mammoth Cave220142000
Phelps219971979
Levee 2220172010
Brownsville120242024
Lovelacevile120181977
Shiloh120231982
Keysburg119841970
Cedar Grove120061988
Iron Bridge119681968
Sulphur Lick120242001
Hegira120212001
Monticello120221993
Dixon120052005

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.