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Species · Ohio · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Trend in Ohio

All statesForest birds

Louisiana Waterthrush in Ohio has surged: up 780% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+780%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Louisiana Waterthrush Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Louisiana Waterthrush has surged in Ohio: up 780% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in Ohio is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 0.53 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.40–0.91). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.66Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.40–0.9195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in Ohio is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 0.53 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.40–0.91). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.610.350.87
20270.620.360.88
20280.630.380.89
20290.640.390.90
20300.660.400.91

Louisiana Waterthrush Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Louisiana Waterthrush in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Zaleski S.F.620251992
Mohican S.F.520251992
Ray320251992
Tar Hollow220241992
Enon220221985
Coal Run219921969
Rome220251979
Keene220022000
Wayne N.F.120251992
Shawnee S.F.120001992
Scioto Trail120071992
Tick Ridge120191998
Pike S.F.120131992
Middlefield120132005
Strongsville119741974
Stonecreek120222001
Lenox119791979
Birmingham120241988
Petersburg120052005
Meadowbrook120002000
Baxter Ridge120142014
Newcomerstwn119921989
Dresden120241991
South Olive120241993
Smithfield119771977

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaoklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.