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Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Louisiana Waterthrush in Tennessee has surged: up 77% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+77%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Louisiana Waterthrush Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Louisiana Waterthrush has surged in Tennessee: up 77% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in Tennessee is projected to rise about 20% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.89–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.89–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in Tennessee is projected to rise about 20% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.89–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.831.8
20271.30.841.8
20281.40.861.9
20291.40.871.9
20301.40.891.9

Louisiana Waterthrush Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Louisiana Waterthrush in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Willis Sprng820221995
Pond Creek520251968
Elk Valley520251970
Fish Springs420231967
Mansfield320241975
Collinwood320251966
Tellico320251995
Pawpaw219691969
Moscow220162006
Big Sandy220251977
Silerton220241971
Harbuck220131994
Campbellsville220161967
Lewis Forest220241966
Petersburg220062006
Silver Pt220241967
Oliver Spgs220221967
Mcfarland219911967
Mt Olive219751967
Cades Cove220251989
Signal Mtn120251979
Tiptonville120161976
Brownsville120112011
Jones Gap120132013
Whiteville120251970

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.