BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Louisiana Waterthrush in Arkansas has surged: up 82% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+82%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Louisiana Waterthrush Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Louisiana Waterthrush has surged in Arkansas: up 82% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in Arkansas is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 0.54 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.16–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.39Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.16–0.6295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in Arkansas is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 0.54 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.16–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.380.150.60
20260.380.150.61
20270.380.160.61
20280.390.160.61
20290.390.160.62

Louisiana Waterthrush Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Louisiana Waterthrush in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hope319981988
Nance320242004
Ashdown220162008
Crows219881967
Poyen220021967
Compton220221970
Marshall220212011
Rudy220242011
Dry Fork220222001
Old Milo120241975
Ramsey119971967
Locust Bayou120171968
Stamps119851985
Hughes120192019
Ozark Nf120242013
Magazine Mtn120211994
Hollywood119981969
Blakely119991970
Waldron120181967
Hatfield 2120242017
Crowley'S Ridge120242011
Augusta119881988
Saffell120181996
Rupert120241971
Stark120241967

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.