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Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Trend in Kansas

All statesForest birds

Louisiana Waterthrush in Kansas has surged: up 404% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+404%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Louisiana Waterthrush Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Louisiana Waterthrush has surged in Kansas: up 404% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in Kansas is projected to rise about 112% by 2028 — from 0.07 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.06–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+112%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in Kansas is projected to rise about 112% by 2028 — from 0.07 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.06–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.150.050.24
20250.150.050.25
20260.150.060.25
20270.150.060.25
20280.160.060.25

Louisiana Waterthrush Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Louisiana Waterthrush in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Olathe220211971
Wreford220211997
Seneca220222011
Reece220222007
Trading Post220192006
Humboldt120172008
Lapland120031990
Dalton120142014
Dover120222011
Barclay119681968
Grantville120221990
Rock Creek120171985
Hanover120142011
Bucyrus120232022
Morehead120222011
Le Loup120212002
Lincolnville120142014
Severance120112007
Olsburg120182000
Rock Creek 2120232023

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.