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Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Louisiana Waterthrush in Virginia has surged: up 169% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+169%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Louisiana Waterthrush Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Louisiana Waterthrush has surged in Virginia: up 169% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in Virginia is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.96 (95% range 0.58–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.96Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.58–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in Virginia is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.96 (95% range 0.58–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.930.551.3
20260.940.561.3
20270.950.561.3
20280.950.571.3
20290.960.581.3

Louisiana Waterthrush Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Louisiana Waterthrush in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rural Retrt820241982
Glenwood820231992
Covington720241966
Natural Brid620241980
Bald Knob520241993
Star Tannery320241977
Jerome320231982
Amherst320241970
Gr North Mtn320241993
New Market320241992
Pine Mtn.320241997
Edinburg220241969
Partlow220001981
Shipman220241969
Sharps220221967
Clinchport219711967
Chincoteag W220141992
Elamsville220161979
Brodnax220221974
Backbay219661966
Cornland220091975
Hebron219911991
Appomattox220162015
Douthat220141992
Mountain Lk.220171995

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.