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Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Louisiana Waterthrush in Virginia has surged: up 166% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+166%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Louisiana Waterthrush Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Louisiana Waterthrush has surged in Virginia: up 166% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in Virginia is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.98 (95% range 0.60–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.98Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.60–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in Virginia is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.98 (95% range 0.60–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.950.571.3
20270.960.581.3
20280.970.581.4
20290.970.591.4
20300.980.601.4

Louisiana Waterthrush Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Louisiana Waterthrush in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Natural Brid820251980
Glenwood820231992
Putnam720251969
Covington420251966
Stanley320251969
Amherst320251970
Big Island320251974
Covesville320251967
Big Meadows320251993
Pine Mtn.320241997
W Augusta220251967
Partlow220001981
Fincastle220252023
Shipman220241969
Sharps220221967
Clinchport219711967
Elamsville220161979
Backbay219661966
Cornland220091975
Hebron219911991
Appomattox220162015
Rural Retrt220251982
Bald Knob220251993
Gr North Mtn220251993
Douthat220141992

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.