BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Louisiana Waterthrush in Texas has declined: down 28% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-28%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Louisiana Waterthrush Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Louisiana Waterthrush in Texas. See the full index history below.

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±115.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±115.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±115.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.000.06
20260.020.000.06
20270.020.000.06
20280.020.000.06
20290.020.000.06

Louisiana Waterthrush Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Louisiana Waterthrush in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Massey Lake320142011
Crossroads219771977
Union Hill219951995
Sadler220172017
Mt. Selman220012001
Big Sandy Bith120162016
Lance Rosier Bith120192014
Cayuga119961996
Muldoon120082001
Utopia120162016
Town Bluff119901977
Livingston119831983
New Waverly120001969
Oak Grove119821978
Diboll120241973
Caledonia120231971
Morton120122010
Leakey120152015
Glen Rose120132013
Easton 2120212021
Lydia120131975
Gainesville120132013
Alexander St120172007
Wills Point120232011
Smyrna119981998

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.